With LIBOR Low, Don't Rush To Refinance Your ARM

Is your mortgage scheduled to adjust this season? You may want to let it. This year's ARM-holding homeowners in WA are finding out that an adjusting mortgage may be the simplest way to get access to today's low mortgage rates -- without paying the closing costs.

Currently, conventional adjustable-rate mortgages are adjusting to near 3.00 percent.

If your home is financed via an adjustable-rate mortgage, you're likely cognizant of your loan's life-cycle. At first, your ARM's initial mortgage rate is agreed upon between you and your lender, a rate that both parties agree will remain in place from anywhere from one to 10 years, with periods of five and seven years being most common.

Then, after the initial "teaser rate" expires, the mortgage's mortgage rate adjusts according to a pre-determined formula -- one that's also agreed upon at closing. The loan is then subject to an identical mortgage rate adjustment every 12 months thereafter until the loan is paid in full.

The most common conforming mortgage adjustment formula is to add 2.25 percent to the then-current 12-month LIBOR rate.

Today's 12-month LIBOR is 1.05% so, as a real-life example, an adjustable-rate mortgage that's leaving its teaser rate period this week would adjust to 3.30%.

If you're a homeowner who took a 7-year ARM in 2005, or a 5-year ARM in 2007, your newly-adjusted mortgage rate should be roughly 2 percent lower than your initial teaser rate. On a $250,000 mortgage, a 2 percent mortgage rate reduction yields $298 in monthly savings.

Therefore, if you have an adjustable-rate mortgage that's due to reset, don't rush to refinance it. For at least one more year, you can benefit from low mortgage rates and low payments.

As for next year's adjustment, however, that's anyone's guess.

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Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Are A Relative Bargain Today

For buyers and refinancing households throughout WA , adjustable-rate mortgages are a relative bargain as compared to fixed-ones.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of more than 125 banks nationwide, Seattle mortgage applicants electing for a conventional ARM over a conventional fixed-rate mortgage will save 105 basis points on their next mortgage rate.

"Conventional" loans are loans backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Today's average, conventional 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is 3.91% plus points and closing costs. The average rate for a comparable 5-year ARM is 2.86%, plus points and closing costs.

In other words, for every $100,000 borrowed, a conventional 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage will save you $58.15 per month, or $698 per year.

That's a 12 percent savings just for choosing an ARM.

12 percent is a big figure that adds up over 5 years -- especially for households that plan to sell within those first 60 months anyway. There is little sense in paying the mortgage rate premium for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage when a 5-year ARM is perfectly suitable.

For the reason why adjustable-rate mortgages continue are so much lower than their fixed-rate counterparts, look no further than the U.S. economy. ARMs reflect Wall Street's short-term economic expectations; whereas fixed-rate mortgages reflect medium- to long-term expectations.

In the short-term, analysts expect the U.S. economy to grow slowly, with low levels of inflation. This supports the U.S. dollar, the currency in which mortgage bonds are denominated. When the dollar is strong, demand for mortgage bonds tends to increase.

This supports lower interest rates.

Conversely, over the longer-term, inflation is expected to return, which devalues the dollar and everything paid in it (e.g.; mortgage-backed bonds). This is why inflation is linked to higher mortgage rates. When inflation is present in the economy, mortgage bonds lose value, driving mortgage rates up.

Adjustable-rate mortgages aren't perfect for everyone, but in the right situation, they can be a big money-saver and a helpful tool for stretching a household budget. Given today's rates, the money-saving potential is larger than usual.

Before you choose an ARM, discuss your options with your loan officer.

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5-Year ARM Falls To Historic Lows

The interest rate differential between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages continues to widen and has now reached historic levels.

There's never been a better time to lock an ARM.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, homeowners in Kent who lock their mortgage rate today will save 129 basis points on rate, on average, by choosing a 5-year ARM as their mortgage product as compared to a 30-year fixed rate loan.

The average 30-year fixed rate is 4.51%. The average 5-year ARM rate is 3.22%.

It's the biggest interest rate spread between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage rates in Freddie Mac's recorded history; a gap which is the result, in part, of the 5-year ARM dropping to all-time lows this week.

Rates for the 5-year ARM are even lower than during last year's historic Refi Boom.

Putting today's "spread" in action against a hypothetical $250,000 loan size, a homeowner that chooses an ARM over a fixed-rate loan would save $184.30 monthly, and would have $500 fewer closing costs.

That's a 5-year savings of $11,558 -- nearly triple what you would have saved just 2 years ago.

The main reason why today's adjustable-rate mortgages are priced so aggressively relative to comparable fixed-rate loans is that Wall Street expects the economy to drag for the next several quarters, after which it expects an acceleration. 

ARMs tend to reflect short-term expectations for the U.S. economy which is why short-term mortgage rates are dropping.  Fixed products, by contrast, take a longer view and expectations for an economic rebound are pulling fixed-rate mortgage rates up.

For now, mortgage applicants can exploit the difference -- especially those who plan to move within the next 5 years -- but adjustable-rate mortgages aren't right for everyone. ARMs carry particular risks about which you should be aware before locking.

Before you choose an ARM, therefore, talk it through with your loan officer. 

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Conforming ARMs From 2004-2006 Are Adjusting To 3 Percent

When a mortgage applicants chooses an adjustable-rate mortgage over a fixed-rate one, he accepts a risk that -- at some point in the future -- the mortgage's interest rate will rise. Lately, though, that hasn't been the outcome.

Since mid-2010, conforming mortgages have adjusted below their initial "teaser" rate consistently, giving homeowners in WA and nationwide reason to ride their respective adjustable-rate mortgages out.

For example, this month, conforming 7-year and 5-year ARMs are adjusting near 3.011 percent based on the most common loan terms of 2004-2006. It's because of how adjustable-rate mortgages are structured.

Adjustable-rate mortgages follow a defined lifecycle. First, the ARM's mortgage rate is pegged; held fixed for a set number of years. This period ranges from one year to 10 years; periods of five and seven years are most common.

When the initial fixed-rate period ends, the mortgage rate then adjusts based on a pre-set formula. The formula is established by contract in the mortgage closing paperwork, and is commonly defined as:

(Adjusted Mortgage Rate) = (2.250 percent) + (Current 1-Year LIBOR)

Next, every 12 months, based on the same formula as above, the ARM adjusts again until 30 years have passed and the loan is paid is full.

It's important to recognize that in the above equation, LIBOR is a variable so as LIBOR goes, so goes your adjusted mortgage rate. And because LIBOR is ultra-low right now, adjusted mortgage rates are ultra-low, too. LIBOR is expected to stay this way until the global economy has recovered more fully. Analysts predict a higher LIBOR by mid-2012.

So, if you have an adjustable-rate mortgage that's due to reset this season, don't rush to refinance. For at least one more year, you can benefit from low rates and low payments.  As for the next adjustment, though, that's anyone's guess.

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Plan To Sell Within 5 Years? Consider An Adjustable-Rate Mortgage.

Which is better -- a fixed-rate mortgage or an adjustable-rate mortgage? It's a common question among home buyers and refinancing households in WA.

The answer? It depends. 

Fixed-rate mortgages give the certainty of a known, unchanging principal + interest payment for the life of the loan. This can help you with budget-setting and financial planning. Some homeowners say fixed-rate loans they offer "peace of mind".

Adjustable-rate mortgages do not.

After a pre-determined, introductory number of years, the initial interest rate on the note -- sometimes called a "teaser rate" -- moves up or down, depending on the existing market conditions. It then adjust again every 6 or 12 months thereafter until the loan is paid in full.

ARMs can adjust higher or lower so they are necessarily unpredictable long-term. However, if you can be comfortable with uncertainty like that, you're often rewarded with a very low initial interest rate -- much lower than a comparable fixed rate loan, anyway.

Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage survey highlights this point.

The interest rate gap between fixed-rate mortgages and adjustable-rate mortgages is growing. It peaked 2 weeks ago, but remains huge at 1.16 percentage points.

On a $200,000 home loan, this 1.16 FRM/ARM spread yields a monthly principal + interest payment difference of $136, or $8,160 over 5 years, the typical initial teaser rate period.

Savings like that can be compelling and may push you toward an adjustable rate loan.

You might also consider a 5-year ARM over a fixed-rate loan if any of these scenarios apply:

1. You're buying a new home with the intent to sell it within 5 years
2. You're currently financed with a 30-year fixed mortgage and have plans to sell the home within 5 years
3. You're interested in low payments, and are comfortable with longer-term payment uncertainty

Furthermore, homeowners whose existing ARMs are due for adjustment might want to refinance into a brand new ARM, if only to push the teaser rate period farther into the future.

Before choosing ARM over fixed, though, make sure you speak with your loan officer about how adjustable rate mortgages work, and their near- and long-term risks. The payment savings may be tempting, but with an ARM, the payments are never permanent.

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Adjustable Rate Mortgages Adjusting To 3.000 Percent Right Now

If your ARM is due to adjust this spring, your best move may be to allow it. Don't rush to refinance -- your rate may be adjusting lower.

It's because of how adjusted mortgage rates are calculated.

First, let's look at the lifecycle of a conventional, adjustable rate mortgage:

1. There's a "starter period" of several years in which the interest rate remains fixed.
2. There's an initial adjustment to rate after the starter period. This is called the "first adjustment".
3. There's a subsequent adjustment until the loan's term expires. The adjustment is usually annual.

The starter period will vary from 1 to 10 years, but once that timeframe ends, and the first adjustment occurs, conventional ARMs enter a lifecycle phase that is common among all ARMs -- regular rate adjustments based on some pre-set formula until the loan is paid in full, and retired.

For conventional ARMs adjusting in 2011, that formula is most commonly defined as:

(12-Month LIBOR) + (2.250 Percent) = (Adjusted Mortgage Rate)

LIBOR is an acronym for London Interbank Offered Rate. It's the rate at which banks borrow money from each other. It's also the variable portion of the adjustable mortgage rate equation. The corresponding constant is typically 2.25%.

Since March 2010, LIBOR has been low and, as a result, adjusting mortgage rates have been low, too.

In 2009, 5-year ARMs adjusted to 6 percent or higher. Today, they're adjusting near 3.000 percent.

That's a big shift. 

Therefore, strictly based on mathematics, letting your ARM adjust this year could be smarter than refinancing it. You may get yourself a lower rate.

Either way, talk to your loan officer. With mortgage rates still near historical lows, Kent homeowners have interesting options. Just don't wait too long. LIBOR -- and mortgage rates in general -- are known to change quickly.

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