What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 8, 2013

Last week's economic news includes several factors that drove U.S. mortgage rates lower.

The Bank of Japan announced that it would increase its purchase of bonds by $1.4 trillion over the next two years. 

This news caused yields on Japanese bonds to fall, which made U.S. bonds more appealing to international investors, that in turn increased MBS prices and caused mortgage rates to fall.

Bumpy Employment Numbers Support Lower Interest Rates

Other significant economic news involves an unexpected drop in the number of new jobs created last month.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Nonfarm Payrolls Report issued Friday indicated that 88,000 jobs were added in March, which fell considerably short of the expected 190,000 jobs added as well as the 236,000 jobs added in February.

Average hourly earnings remained flat against February, which indicates another stall in U.S. economic growth. 

Expanding employment sectors for March included professional and business services and healthcare, while retail jobs decreased.

Jobless claims increased last week in concurrence with lower than expected jobs added for March.

New jobless claims came in at 385,000 and were higher than expectations of 345,000 new jobless claims and the prior week's jobless claims of 357,000.

The monthly unemployment rate fell from 7.7 percent to 7.6 percent, but this isn't encouraging news.

According to the BLS, the unemployment rate fell due to workers leaving the work force instead of workers finding jobs.

Next week, Treasury Auctions will be held Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release FOMC minutes.

Fed Continues Monthly Bond Purchases

Investors and analysts review the minutes for predicting future economic developments and also for gauging the Fed's sentiment about how or if changes should be made to the current quantitative easing program (QE).

The current QE program involves the Fed's monthly purchase of $85 billion in bonds and MBS is intended to keep long-term interest rates including mortgage rates low.

Retail Sales will be released Friday, and as indicated by falling job numbers in the retail sectors, analysts are expecting no growth for March in either report. 

Global news concerning North Korea and the European Union economic situation could also move U.S. markets up or down depending on the nature of the news.

While not encouraging in terms of an economic recovery, these events show that the recovery is proceeding with ups and downs; this doesn't provide investors a clear picture and may cause them to seek safe haven in bonds.

The good news for Renton homeowners is uncertainty and low expectations of the financial markets typically help keep mortgage rates lower.

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week: March 4th, 2013

U.S. Budget Stalemate, Italian Elections Stir Concerns

Mortgage rates were lower last week as investors sought safety in bonds in the wake of US legislators' failure to agree on budget cutbacks, and after Italy’s elections failed to reveal a leader committed to continuing economic reform.

When bond prices including Mortgage Backed Securities rise, mortgage rates typically fall.

While the March 1st deadline for passing budget cutbacks for the U.S. government passed without a resolution, emergency legislation passed last year will keep the government running until March 27.

If a budget is not passed by then, the federal government could face shutdown.

As it stands, $85 billion in cuts are scheduled over the next seven months, but this represents only about 2 percent of the federal budget.

Investor concerns are likely to rise if the March 27 deadline approaches without a resolution.

Italian Elections Influence Investor Sentiment

On Monday, Italian elections were held, but the results did not reveal a leader dedicated to continuing economic reforms necessary for stabilizing Italy's economy.

Another round of elections may be required to determine Italy's new leader.

There is deep conflict in Italy as citizens do not agree with the need for economic austerity measures.

As the Eurozone's third largest economy, Italy's division on future economic reforms raises two concerns for investors.

First, without a clear reform leader established in last week’s elections, Investors fear that austerity measures may be relaxed and increase Italy’s debt risk.

A less likely risk is that Italy may leave the EU if it cannot resolve its need for economic reforms with its citizens' wishes.

Upcoming Economic Releases

The coming week's scheduled economic releases include:

• Ongoing developments regarding the U.S. budget and aftermath of the Italian elections are expected to continue influencing U.S. financial markets.

• On Tuesday ISM Services Index for February will be released. Wednesday's news includes the Fed's Beige Book Report for March and Factory Orders for January.

• Thursday's scheduled economic news releases include Productivity and Trade Balance reports. Friday finishes the week's economic news with the Employment report, which includes job and unemployment data for February.

As spring approaches, demand for homes typically increases, which in turn may drive up home prices and mortgage rates.

Consider getting pre-approved for a mortgage and looking for your new home sooner than later.

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