2012: A Promising Economic and Job Outlook

With the New Year in full swing, many Floridians are curious to see where the economy will head this year. According to recent national data, unemployment had finally dipped to 8.5%, while nonfarm payroll employment rose in December 2011. The labor department also recorded significant increases in transportation, retail trade, and health care jobs to name a few. Construction employment also saw an increase, which will help offset the two previous months, and give us a positive outlook on new real estate. Generally speaking, fewer Americans are jobless which strengthens the economy as a whole.
Florida closed out 2011 in good fashion as far as the unemployment rate goes. The last two months reported the second sharpest decline (2.1%) of unemployment in the country, only falling behind New Mexico. Tampa, Miami, and Jacksonville will to have to carry the state through 2012 if we are going to see the unemployment rate drop, and stay, below 8%.
Tourism and travel could also lend a helping hand in rebounding Florida’s economy. With talks of moving the Tampa Bay Rays to Hillsborough County, and building a new casino resort in Cape Coral, we can only hope that this will stimulate jobs, spending, and the desire for real estate here on the gulf coast. As far as travel is concerned, Joe Lopano, CEO of Tampa International Airport, predicts an increase of 13.6% in international traffic. With more money being designated for marketing campaigns that reach out to South American countries like Brazil, and places in the Caribbean, high expectations are set for attracting an international crowd to the Tampa Bay area.
Some predictions are even estimating a 50% rise in home building permits for 2012. The fact that supply and demand are not as far apart as they have been the last five years, could set the stage for a great year in home building. Naples, Tampa Bay, and other neighboring gulf coast areas should feel the first wave of this optimistic increase.
A sign of good things: unemployment rates are down, plans are in place to attract a diverse crowd to the gulf coast and Tampa Bay area, and promising initiatives are set for a great year in new construction and home building. Someone should tell the Mayans to add these events to their calendar!

Read More

Make A Mortgage Rate Plan BEFORE Friday's Jobs Report

Mortgage rates could move higher beginning tomorrow morning. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its February jobs report at 8:30 AM ET.

Home buyers and rate shoppers in Seattle would be wise to take note. The jobs report is almost always a market-mover.

Consider last month.

Although net job creation fell well-short of expectations in January -- just 36,000 jobs were added -- the national Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.0%, its lowest level in 2 years. The marked improvement surprised economists and sparked inflationary concerns within the investor community.

This, in turn, caused mortgage rates to rise.

In the days immediately following the jobs report's release, conforming rates across WA jumped 0.375 percent. That's equivalent to a mortgage payment increase of $22 per month per $100,000 borrowed.

A similar spike could occur tomorrow.

Wall Street scrutinizes job growth because with more working Americans, there's more consumer spending, and consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy. A blow-out number tomorrow would change expectations for the future, and lead rates higher again.

The economy shed 7 million jobs between 2008 and 2009 and has barely made 1 million of them back. Tomorrow, analysts expect to see 183,000 jobs created. If the actual reading is lower-than-expected, mortgage rates should fall and home affordability will improve.

Anything else and mortgage rates should rise. Likely by a lot.

Therefore, if you're shopping for a mortgage right now, consider your risk tolerance. Once markets open tomorrow, you can't get today's rates.

Read More