New Home Sales Remain Elevated Into Q4 2012

Sales of newly-built homes took a small step lower in October, but remain strong.

According to the Commerce Department, New Home Sales slipped 1,000 units last month, falling to 368,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. 

The final reading fell short of Wall Street expectations, and the government revised downward its initial findings from August and September by 2,000 units and 20,000 units, respectively.

A "new" home is a home that is considered new construction.

Furthermore, the number of new homes for sale nationwide ticked higher to 147,000 -- the highest reading in 9 months.

However, in taking a broader look at October's New Home Sales report, we see obvious strengths. For example, although home sales slipped last month, it remains the third-highest tally since the April 2010 expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit.

The highest reading? Last month's 369,000.

In addition, the national new home inventory has dropped, off 8% from last year. Fewer homes for sales has been a driving force behind rising home prices. As compared to one year ago, the median new home price is up nearly six percent. More demand for buyers is a factor, too.

At the current sales pace, the complete U.S. inventory of new homes for sale would "sell out" in 4.8 months. This is a noteworthy data point because, as analysts point out, a 6.0-month supply of homes marks a market in balance.

Today's new homes market, therefore, is a seller's market; one in which home builders may be gaining pricing power and negotiation leverage over buyers. It's one reason why home builder confidence has climbed to a 5-year high.

For buyers of new construction, then, in Seattle and nationwide, 2013 is a critical year. Home prices may rise and mortgage rates may, too. And, along the way, it may get tougher to get a "great deal" on new construction.

If you're planning to buy, therefore, consider moving up your time frame. After October's small step backward, the time to buy a newly-built home may be now.

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 29, 2012

Mortgage markets ended the week slightly better last week. Wall Street took its cues from U.S. economic data, from developments in Europe, and from the Federal Reserve, moving mortgage rates lower in WA and nationwide.

Pricing for both conforming and FHA mortgage rates improved between Monday and Friday, with the majority of gains occurring late in the week.

The timing of the gains explains why Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate report showed the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate rising this week when, in fact, it did not. Because Freddie Mac conducts its mortgage rate survey at the start of the week, its survey respondents had no time to acknowledge late-week improvements.

Freddie Mac said the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate rose to 3.41% for home buyers and refinancing households willing to pay 0.7 discount points at closing plus a full set of closing costs. 

Mortgage applicants choosing zero-point mortgages should expect a higher rate.

The biggest event of last week was the Federal Open Market Committee's seventh scheduled meeting of the year. The FOMC's post-meeting press release described the U.S. economy as growing, and inflation as stable. The Fed re-iterated its pledge to QE3, a stimulus program geared at keeping mortgage rates suppressed. The group also said it would hold the Fed Funds Rate low until at least mid-2015.

Lastly, the Fed showed optimism about the broader U.S. housing market -- and for good reason. Since October 2011, housing has trended higher and last week saw the release of the September New Homes Sales report and the September Pending Home Sales Index. Both showed strength.

This week, the market's biggest story is Friday's release of the October Non-Farm Payrolls report. Jobs are a keystone in the U.S. economic recovery so the monthly jobs report holds sway over mortgage rates. If the number of jobs created exceeds Wall Street expectations, mortgage rates in Kent will rise and purchasing power will shrink.

The U.S. economy has added jobs in each of the previous 24 months. 

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New Home Supply Remains Firmly In "Seller's Market" Territory

The U.S. housing market appears headed for a strong close to 2012.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold jumped to 389,000 units in September 2012 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.

Not since the expiration of the $8,000 federal home buyer tax credit in April 2010 have new homes sold at such volumes.

September's tally marks a 5.7 percent increase from the month prior, and a 27 percent increase from September 2011. There are now just 145,000 new homes for sale nationwide and, according to the National Association of Homebuilders, buyer demand continues to grow.

At today's pace of home sales, the entire U.S. inventory of new homes for sale would sell out in 4.5 months. By way of comparison, in January 2009, new home supply was 12.1 months.

When home supplies dip below 6.0 months, analysts say, it signifies a "seller's market"; one in which sellers tend to benefit from negotiation leverage over buyers. The national New Home Supply has been below 6.0 months since October 2011.

Perhaps that's one reason why the average new home sale price has climbed 14.5 percent over the past 12 months to $292,400; and why median new home sales prices have made a similar jump.

With builders reporting prospective buyer foot traffic at its highest level since 2006, home supplies are shrinking at a time when buyer demand is rising.  Low mortgage rates and affordable housing choices contribute, too.

30-year fixed rate mortgage rates have been under 4 percent for all of 2012, and are now under 3.50% nationwide. Low rates make for low monthly payments but, like home prices, conditions can't remain buyer-friendly forever.

For today's home buyers of new construction, the outlook for finding "great deals" in 2013 may be grim. New home prices are expected to rise and supplies will continue to get scarce. The best homes in the new construction market, therefore, may be the ones you buy today.

By early-next year, low home prices may be gone, and low mortgage rates may be, too.

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New Home Supply Remains Firmly In "Seller's Market" Territory

The market for new construction homes remains strong nationwide.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold slipped 0.3 percent in August 2012 to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 373,000 units sold — just 1,000 units less than July 2012 and the second-highest reading since April 2010.

April 2010 was the last month of that year's tax credit which granted home buyers up to $8,000 off of their federal tax bill.

As compared to one year ago, sales of new homes are higher by 28%.

Furthermore, during the same time frame, the median sale price of a new home moved higher by 17 percent. The rising prices, in part, are the result of a shrinking national new home inventory. 

When August ended, there were just 141,000 homes for sale nationwide -- a 12% drop from the year prior. This suggests that home builders have stopped building without buyers; that some lessons were learned in last decade's homebuilding frenzy.

At today's pace of home sales, the entire stock of new homes nationwide would sell out in 4.5 months. As a comparison point, in January 2009, the new home supply reached 12.1 months.

With home supply below 6.0 months, analysts say, it signifies a "seller's market" and home supplies have not been north of 6.0 months since October 2011. And, based on recent homebuilder confidence surveys, supply doesn't appear headed back over 6.0 months anytime soon.

Builders in WA and nationwide report that prospective buyer foot traffic is at its highest point in 6 years. Low mortgage rates and affordable housing choices have held demand for new homes strong. Rising rents contribute, too.

For today's home buyers of new construction, then, shrinking supply amid rising demand portends higher home prices into 2013 and beyond. If you're a buyer of new construction, therefore, think about moving up your time frame. 

The best deals left in housing may be the ones you grab while the calendar still reads 2012. By January, low prices may be gone, and low rates may be, too.

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New Home Sales Rise To 2-Year High

The new construction market continues to improve.

As reported by the Census Bureau, 369,000 new homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. A "new home" is a home that is considered new construction.

May's data marks the highest number of new homes sold since April 2010, the last month of that year's federal home buyer tax credit.

It's also a 14% increase over the rolling 12-month average.

The news was somewhat expected based on the most recent Homebuilder Confidence survey, which rose to a 5-year high. Home builders have been reporting higher sales volume and rising buyer foot traffic since October of last year. 

The May New Home Sales report confirms what builders already told us.

Furthermore, new homes are selling more quickly than builders have built them, lowering the national "home supply" to levels not seen since October 2005. There are currently 145,000 new homes for sale.

A supply of 6.0 months is believed to represent a market in balance. Anything less connotes a "sellers' market". At the current pace of sales, the entire new home housing stock would be exhausted in 4.7 months.

The South Region continues to account for the majority of new construction sales, posting a 55% market share in May. South Region sales were up 13 percent as compared to April. The other 3 regions turned in mixed results :

• Northeast Region : +36.7% from April 2012
• Midwest Region : -10.6% from April 2012
• West Region : -3.5% from April 2012

For all its strength, though, the Census Bureau's New Home Sales data may also be "off".

Although New Home Sales were said to rise by roughly 8 percent nationally from April to May, the government's monthly report was also footnoted with a ±12.2% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales reading may have been as high as +20% last month, or as low as -4%. The values could be positive or negative -- we can't know for certain.

However, that's not to say that the New Home Sales should be ignored.

Longer-term, new home trends have been positive and builder confidence survey suggests the same.  If you're in the market for new construction in Kent , you may want to go into contract soon. Home prices and mortgage rates remain low -- a terrific combination for today's home buyers.

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New Home Sales Rise For 7th Month Out Of 8

The April New Home Sales report suggests that the market for newly-built homes is as strong as the market for existing ones. 

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold rose 3.3 percent in April to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 343,000 units sold -- its second-highest reading since April 2010.

April 2010 marked the last month of that year's federal home buyer tax credit program.

April's New Home Sales data also marks the 7th of eight consecutive months during which the number of new homes sold climbed nationwide, a streak unequaled in recent history. During this period, the supply of new homes for sale has dropped 13%. 

The complete new home inventory is down to 146,000 homes nationwide.

At the current pace of sales, home buyers in Seattle and across the county would exhaust the complete supply of newly-built homes in 5.1 months.

This, too, is a significant figure.

When home supplies fall below 6 months of inventory, it's widely believed to indicate a "seller's market" and there hasn't been more than 6 months of a new home supply since October 2011. This has placed upward pressure on new home prices and helps to explain why the average home sale price is up 9% from just 6 months ago.

Homes are selling, and they're rising in price -- a trend that today's buyers should expect to continue through the summer and fall months.

Record-low mortgage rates have moved home affordability to an all-time high with home builders now reporting the highest levels of buyer foot traffic at any time since 2007. As builder confidence grows, buyers can expect to find fewer "great deals" -- especially as demand for homes outpaces supply. 

If you're a home buyer in search of new construction, therefore, the best new construction "deals" of 2012 may be the ones you find today. By 2013, the deals may be gone.

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New Home Sales Revised Higher In February; Slip 7% In March

Sales of new homes ticked lower in March, unexpectedly.

Based on Census Bureau data, the number of new, single-family homes sold in March slipped 7 percent from February -- the largest one-month drop in more than a year. 

On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, buyers in WA and nationwide purchased 328,000 newly-built homes last month. The decrease in sales from February to March can be attributed, in part, though, to a massive upward revision in February's figures.

Last month, the Census Bureau had reported 313,000 new home sales in February on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This month, those sales were re-measured to be 353,000 -- an increase of 13 percent.

January's sales were revised higher, too.

The long-term trend in the market for new homes remains "up". This is no more apparent than when we look at the available new home inventory.

At the close of March, just 144,000 new homes were available for purchase, down 2,000 from the month prior and representing the most sparse new home housing supply since at least 1993, the year that the Census Bureau starting tracking such data. 

At the current pace of sales, the new home housing stock would be sold out in 5.3 months. A six-month supply is believed to represent a market in balance.

For new home buyers in Renton , March's New Home Sales report does not represent a housing market pull-back. It may represent opportunity, however.

From October 2011 to February 2012, housing data was uniformly strong. Home sales were higher, home supplies were lower, and confidence was rising. In March, it was the reverse. This is normal because growth is rarely linear. 

In any market, it's a few steps forward and a single step back, and housing is likely showing a similar pattern. With mortgage rates still low and builder confidence down, it's a terrific time to shop new construction.

There are deals to be found for buyers who seek them out. 

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New Home Sales Slip In February

Sales of "new homes" fell to the lowest levels in four months last month.

According to the Census Bureau's monthly New Home Sales report, 313,000 new homes were sold in February 2012 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, representing a 1.6% drop from the month prior.

A "new home" is a home for which there has been no prior owner nor tenant.

At first glance, the data looks negative for the housing market; a suggestion that the well-publicized housing market recovery may be slowed. However, within February's New Home Sales report are three important counter-statistics worth mentioning.

First, although annualized home sales volume slipped 5,000 units in February, this occurred as the number of homes for sale nationwide remained constant at 150,000. This is the fewest number of new homes for sale since at least 1993 -- the first year that the Census Bureau tracked such data.

A small home supply promotes rising home values when buyer demand is rising and, in February, buyer demand held firm.

A second reason to remain optimistic on housing is that New Home Supply was 5.8 months in February. This means that, at the current pace of sales, the entire new home inventory will be "sold out" in 5.8 months.

Housing experts say that when home supplies fall below 6.0 months, it's bullish for housing.

And, as a third reason to look past the New Home Sales headline figure, last month's reporting Margin of Error was huge.

According to the government, the February New Home Sales data was published with a ±23.9% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales sales volume may have dropped as much as -25.5%, or may have climbed by as much as +22.3%. 

Because the range of possible values includes both positive and negative numbers, the Census Bureau assigned its February data the "zero confidence" label.

It will be several months before February's New Home Sales data is revised. Until then, buyers in Kent would do well to take cues from the real estate market-at-large which shows steady, gradual improvement. 

If your 2012 housing plans call for buying new construction, consider using February's results as a window to "make a deal". As the year progresses, great values in housing may be gone for good.

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New Home Supply Falls To 5.6 Months

The new construction market rolls on.

As foreshadowed by February's Homebuilder Confidence survey, which rose to a 4-year high, the Census Bureau reports new homes are selling more quickly than builders have built them, lowering the national "home supply" to levels not seen since 2006.

A "new home" is a home that is considered new construction and, at the current pace of sales, the nation's entire new home inventory of 151,000 homes would be sold in 5.6 months.

Anything less than 6.0-month supply is thought to connote a "sellers' market".

321,000 new homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. 7 of 10 new homes sold for less than $300,000. 

The South Region continues to account for the majority of new construction sales, posting a 59% market share in January. South Region sales were up 9 percent as compared to December. The other 3 regions turned in mixed results. 

• Northeast Region : +11.1% from December 2011 
• Midwest Region : -24.5% from December 2011 
• West Region : -10.6% from December 2011 

Unfortunately, the Census Bureau's New Home Sales data could be wrong.

Although New Home Sales were said to fall by about one percent nationally from December to January, the government's monthly report was footnoted with a ±16.6% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales reading may have been as high as +15%, or as low as -18%. 

Because the range of values includes positive and negative values, the January New Home Sales data is of "zero confidence". However, that's not to say that it should be ignored. The aforementioned homebuilder confidence survey shows builders optimistic for the future, and a bevy of home sale data since October 2011 suggests a market in recovery.

If you're in the market for new construction in Renton , therefore, consider going into contract sooner rather than later. Home prices remain low and mortgage rates do, too -- a terrific combination for today's buyers.

In a few months, the landscape may look different.

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Supply Of New Homes At 6.1 Months Nationwide

New Home Sales slowed into the New Year but the market for newly-built homes remains strong. For home buyers in WA and nationwide, December's New Home Sales report is yet one more signal that the housing market recovery may be underway.

According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold in December 2011 slipped 2 percent to 307,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis nationwide.

A "new home" is a home that is considered new construction; a home for which the buyer will be the first owner and tenant.

As compared to December 2010, last months' sales volume fell seven percent. It's a statistic that suggests housing market weakness. However, in looking at a different component of the New Home Sales report -- the supply of homes for sale -- we're forced to reconsider.

At the current pace of sales, every new home for sale nationwide would be "sold" in a matter of 6.1 months. 

Economists believe that a 6.0-month supply defines a market in balance -- anything quicker is termed a "seller's market". Statistics like that are enough to create urgency among today's Renton home buyers. 

Unfortunately, the Census Bureau's data may be wrong.

Although December's New Home Sales report shows sales down 2 percent, the government's data was published with a ±13.2% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales figure may have been as low as -15.2 percent, or as high as +11.2 percent. And, because the range of possible values includes both positive and negative numbers, the Census Bureau had no choice but to assign its December data "Zero Confidence".

It will be a few months before final revisions are made to December New Home Sales data. Until then, therefore, buyers should take cues from the market-at-large and the market-at-large hints at recovery. One example of this is homebuilders showing more confidence in their product than at any time in the last 5 years.

If your plans for 2012 call for buying new construction, therefore, consider using this lull to "make a deal". As the year progresses, the great values in housing may be gone.

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Behind The Housing Starts Headlines, The Story That Matters

When it comes to housing data, sometimes you have to look past the headlines. December's Housing Starts data offers a terrific illustration of why.

Each month, the Census Bureau tallies Housing Starts for the month prior. A "housing start" is a home on which construction has started.

The Housing Starts report is separated by property type. There is a count for single-family homes; a count for 2-4 unit homes; and a count for buildings of 5 units or more, a category including apartments and condominiums.

In December, as reported by the government, Housing Starts fell 4 percent nationwide overall. This runs contrary to recent strength in housing and the story was quickly picked up by the press :

• U.S. Housing Starts Fall More Than Forecast (BusinessWeek)
• U.S. Housing Starts Fall (MarketWatch)
• December Housing Starts Are Worse Than Expected (Fox Business)

Now, although these headlines are factually true, they're also are a little bit misleading.

Housing Starts did fall 4 percent last month but that was for all Housing Starts, across all three property types. Data like this is somewhat irrelevant to home buyers in WA or anywhere else nationwide.

Few buyers purchase 2-4 unit homes, and almost nobody purchases an entire apartment building. Rather, it's the Housing Starts reports' "single-family" tally that matters because that's the home type that the majority of home buyers purchase.

In December, for the fourth straight month, Single-Family Housing Starts increased.

Single-family housing starts climbed 4 percent last month to 470,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This is the highest number of Single-Family Housing Starts since April 2010 -- the last month of last year's home buyer tax credit.

The Single-Family Housing Starts data is the latest in a series of data that point to a housing rebound nationwide. New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales and Homebuilder Confidence has each posted multi-month highs and all are poised for strong gains into 2012.

If you're planning to buy a home in 2012, consider buying in between now and March rather than at some point later. Home prices -- and mortgage rates- are likely to move higher.

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New Home Sales Figures Better Than Reported

According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold slid for the fourth straight month in August, easing 2 percent from July. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 295,000 newly-built homes last month.

August marked the lowest new home sales tally since February. News outlets are jumping on the story, with at least one calling it a "blow" to the housing market.

That's an unfair assessment.

It's tough for the new home market to tally big sales numbers when the number of homes for sale is dwindling and, in August, that's exactly what we saw. The number of new homes for sale nationwide fell to 162,000 last month. This is the fewest number of new homes for sale since at least 1993, the first year the Census Bureau tracked such data.

In other words, using New Home Sales as a housing market gauge may be misleading. A better metric may be new home supply. 

In August, new home supply edged 0.1 months higher to 6.6 months. This means that, at today's sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be sold out in 6.6 months.

It's the second-fastest reading in 2 years.

The new home market represents an interesting opportunity for home buyers in Kent. Builders are facing new competition from bank-owned homes and foreclosures, dragging builder confidence to all-time lows. Furthermore, builders have low expectations for the next 6 months.

As a buyer, you can use this to your advantage. Builders may be more willing to negotiate on price and finishes versus this time last year. You may find a good "deal" in new construction once you go in search of it. 

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New Home Supplies Remain Flat; Builders Not Over-Extending

Sales of newly-built homes slipped in July, falling 1 percent as compared to June. Home buyers closed on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 298,000 units, the lowest reading since February.

The supply of new homes, however, remained flat.

July's 6.6 months of supply equaled June's tally and remains near the multi-year low of 6.5 months set in May of this year. The figures suggest a new home market that's finding its balance.

Builders are building to meet demand, and not much more.

The New Home Sales report may have read differently if not for the Northeast Region which doubled its sales units in July. The gains buoyed the broader data, re-affirming the importance of looking past national data and focusing on what's local; the national market is not reflective of any given town

Broken down by region, July New Home Sales fared as follows:

• Northeast Region : +100.0% from June 2011 
• Midwest Region : +2.4% from June 2011 
• South Region : -7.4% from June 2011 
• West Region : -5.9% from June 2011 

However, as with most months, it's important that we recognize the New Home Sales data's margin of error.

Although New Home Sales showed a 1 percent drop in July, the reported margin of error was ±12.9%. This means that the actual reading could have been as high as +11.9 percent, or as low as -13.9 percent. Because the range includes both positive and negative values, the Census Bureau assigned its July data "zero confidence".

New Home Sales appear to be stable, despite falling sales figures. Supplies remain flat and builder confidence does, too. The good news for buyers in Renton , then, is that lower mortgage rates are making homes more affordable.

Mortgage rates are currently at 50-year lows.

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New Home Supplies Keep Shrinking; Prices Pressured Higher

Home builders are slowly reducing inventory.

According to Census Bureau data, the number of new homes slid 1 percent from May. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 312,000 newly-built homes last month.

It's the third straight month of falling sales and the headline data casts the Kent housing market in a negative light.

Upon closer inspection, however, the numbers appear quite strong. 

First, sales are down marginally. Total units sold have dropped just 2 percent from the highs of the year. And, second, the number of newly-built homes for sale is down markedly from last year

There are 22% fewer new homes for sale today as compared to June 2010

At today's sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be sold in 6.3 months -- the quickest sell-out window since the expiration of the 2010 federal home buyer tax credit.

Builders are feeling better about their business, too.

After falling to a 9-month low, homebuilder confidence rebounded this month, boosted by expectations for a strong fall season. For buyers across WA , this could be seen as a market-shifting signal.

When builder confidence rises, negotiating for upgrades and price reductions can be tougher; "good deals" get scarce.

If you're a home buyer and are considering new construction, don't let the headlines fool you. Sales figures are slipping, but that's because there are fewer homes are for sale nationwide. The inventory is shrinking and that can push home prices higher.

With mortgage rates still low, today's market may be your best value of the year.

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New Home Supply Falls To 16-Year Low

After posting an all-time low in February, New Home Sales rebounded strongly last month.

Based on joint research from the Census Bureau and HUD, 300,000 new, single-family homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in March. It's an 11 percent improvement from February, and right in-line with the 6-month average.

The supply of available new homes improved, too, in March, falling by close to a full month.

At the current pace of sales, the entire new home housing stock would be sold in 7.3 months. This is the second-best reading in a year, a statistic partially-supported by the relatively small number of new homes on the market.

There are now just 183,000 new homes available for sale across Renton and the country. That's the smallest reading since the Census Bureau started to keep New Home Sales records beginning in 1995.

However, it should be noted that the March New Home Sales data is suspect. The reading's margin of error exceeds it actual measurement by almost double. It's possible that sales volume fell in March instead of rising, therefore. The Census Bureau says as much in its footnotes:

The change [in new home sales] is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease [in March 2011].

We won't know for certain until future data revisions are made.

If you're a home buyer in Fairwood , though, and want to stay ahead of the market, you won't want to take chances. If the Census Bureau finds its data to be accurate after revisions are made, new home prices will already have started to rise.

You may get your best home value by buying sooner rather than later.

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Pending Home Sales Rebound; Suggest Brighter Spring For Housing

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Pending Home Sales Index rose 2 percent last month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. A "pending home sale" is defined as a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

February's Pending Home Sales Index rebound breaks a 2-month losing streak, and reverses the recent downward momentum in housing. Both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales volume showed a sizable loss last month. 

For buyers and sellers of real estate in Seattle , the Pending Home Sales Index is of particular import. It's one of the few forward-looking indicators in housing, and February's data suggests a stronger spring season than was the winter.

Region-by-region, Pending Home Sales data varied:

• Northeast Region: -10.9%
• Midwest Region : +4.0%
• South Region : +2.7%
• West Region : +7.0%

3 of 4 regions showed marked improvement, which is good for housing. In the fourth -- New England -- it's likely that inclement weather hampered results.

February was colder-than-normal and the month capped a record-breaking snowfall season for the region. Anecdotally, fewer homes are sold in the cold-and-snow of winter and it's likely that the weather affected local housing markets.

Looking to March and April, therefore, we should expect Existing Home Sales data to rebound. This is because 80% of "pending" homes close within 60 days, and because improving weather should release pent-up demand for housing.

More sales plus higher home demand tends to lead home prices higher. If you're in the market for a new home, consider that your best negotiation leverage comes in a weak market. As the seasons turn, your leverage looks poised to slip.

The best time to buy this year may be right now.

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New Home Sales Fall To All-Time, Recorded Low. Maybe.

Sales of newly-built homes plunged 17 percent to an seasonally-adjusted, annualized 250,000 units in February, and the supply of new homes rose to 8.9 months in February -- a 1.5 month jump from January.

It's the lowest New Home Sales reading in recorded history, according to the Census Bureau, and the third straight report to signal that home values may be slow to rise in Renton and nationwide this season.

Earlier this week, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Existing Home Sales down 10 percent from February, and the Federal Home Finance Agency said home values slipped 0.3 percent between December and January.

The media has picked up on the trend, too. 

• No Spring In Housing's Step (WSJ)
• Is Housing Really In Recovery (CNBC)
• Experts See Weak Recovery (UPI)

There's two interesting angles here. First, the one that's largely neglected in the stories online.

Although New Home Sales read -17% last month, the data's Margin of Error read ±19%. This means that, once additional homes are added to February's New Home Sales tally, it's possible that the reading actually rose 2%.

Because the Margin of Error exceeds the measured reading, February's New Home Sales figures are of "zero confidence". The Census Bureau even says as much in its report.

Or, if the initial reading is accurate, a second story emerges. Namely, how an increase in home supply may help this season's buyers to negotiate better prices for a home, and upgrades from a builder.

There's often more to a real estate story than its headline and February's New Home Sales proves it.

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