RSS Feed
Twitter
9:12 PM
Unknown
Here is an interesting chart from Tim Wallace on Civilian Population, Labor Force, Employed. The chart compares June of 2012, to June in previous years.
Population keeps growing but labor force does not. This is mostly due to the weak economy not boomer demographics (although demographics does come into play).
Demographics suggests the labor force would be growing at a smaller rate, but still growing. Instead, the labor force has stalled for four years. For example: in 2000 it took about 150,000 jobs per month to keep up with birthrate and immigration. In 2007 it took about 125,000 jobs per month (a number I believe Bernanke still uses).
I think it now takes about 75,000. However, so many boomers are desperate for jobs and the participation rate has dropped so low, that should the economy improve and people start looking for work, the number could easily rise back up to 125,000 per month.
For a detailed discussion, please see Question on Jobs: How Many Does It Take to Keep Up With Demographics?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
click on chart for sharper image
Population keeps growing but labor force does not. This is mostly due to the weak economy not boomer demographics (although demographics does come into play).
Demographics suggests the labor force would be growing at a smaller rate, but still growing. Instead, the labor force has stalled for four years. For example: in 2000 it took about 150,000 jobs per month to keep up with birthrate and immigration. In 2007 it took about 125,000 jobs per month (a number I believe Bernanke still uses).
I think it now takes about 75,000. However, so many boomers are desperate for jobs and the participation rate has dropped so low, that should the economy improve and people start looking for work, the number could easily rise back up to 125,000 per month.
For a detailed discussion, please see Question on Jobs: How Many Does It Take to Keep Up With Demographics?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
0 comments:
Post a Comment